International organizations like Moody's, WB, IMF, and ADB positively have made positive assessment on Vietnam's socio-economy. (photo: kinhtemoitruong.vn)

Some big economies are recovering and growing faster than predicted.

Positive signs

Data released on October 27 by the US Department of Commerce showed that, after declining in quarter 1 and 2, the US economy rebounded with GDP growth of 2.6% in the third quarter. This suggests that the world's number one economy has ended its recession.

US President Joe Biden said this GDP growth in the third quarter is the latest evidence of continuing economic recovery. A recent Refinitiv survey of economists forecast US GDP growth of 2.4% in the third quarter of 2022, slightly lower than the US Department of Commerce’s figures, but confirming the growth trend after two consecutive quarters of decline.

China, the world's second largest economy, reported an economic growth rate of 3.9% in the third quarter of this year, which was higher than a Reuters survey of 3.4% and nearly 10 times China’s growth rate of 0.4% in the second quarter. China's National Bureau of Statistics said China’s economy has overcome the negative impact of "many unexpected shocks" and the main economic indicators have recovered and stabilized "within reasonable limits".

Positive growth in the third quarter of this year has been recorded in several medium and big economies.  

According to the World Bank’s report on Vietnam’s macro-economy in October, Vietnam’s GDP grew 13.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year and 8.9% over the first three quarters.

International organizations like Moody's, WB, IMF, and ADB positively assessed Vietnam's socio-economic situation and optimistically predicted Vietnam's economic growth in 2022 and 2023 will be in the highest group in Southeast Asia.

International financial institutions say growth in the third quarter for so many countries is a good sign for the global economy. But they don’t deny serious difficulties and challenges for the overall economy as well as some individual economies.

Challenges

Bloomberg Economics called the US economic picture “strange” because of mixed signals. The consumer price index is rising while household spending is under pressure, high mortgage interest rates are beginning to cool down the housing market, and unemployment is at a five-decade low. Big companies reporting mixed result is confusing the stock market.

Economists at Morgan Stanley think the third quarter is likely to be the peak of growth, which means the fourth quarter and possibly the whole of 2023 will be unable to match it.

Brittany Brinkerhoff, a financial advisor at Hilltop Wealth Advisors in North Carolina, says inflation is still high and the US Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates.

Richard F. Moody, Chief Economist at Regions Financial, assessed the overall US economy as deteriorating, mainly due to rising inflation and higher interest rates.

The geopolitical situation in many regions continues to be complicated, especially in Europe because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and in Northeast Asia, so governments should be prepared to protect their economies against unexpected scenarios.