The draft agenda of the meeting is to extend sanctions against Russia by 9 months until December. EU Foreign Ministers will also ask the European Commission and the European External Action Service to draw up a list of additional names for sanctions, for a decision within a week.  

The current EU sanctions against Russia began last March following Russia’s annexation of the Crimea peninsula. The sanctions, which will expire this March include asset freezes and travel bans on dozens of Ukrainians and Russians. The EU observer website posted the EU’s decision to expand limitations against Russia and a possible economic sanction.

Deepening conflict

Economic pressures against Russia have increased since the US and the West imposed stricter sanctions. The US already announced it will ban Russia from the SWIFT payment system.  According to analysts, if the ban is carried out, it will be a serious blow to the Russian economy which is already contracting. Moscow would face numerous difficulties in international transactions. The ban would put the Russian banking system on the verge of a collapse. On January 27, the influential Standard & Poor's financial services firm cut Moscow's sovereign credit rating a notch, from BBB minus to BB plus, meaning “junk” status. This hurt Russia’s securities market and the ruble’s value fell sharply. This is the first time in 10 years Russia’s credit rating a notch has been downgraded below investment grade.

Faced with new sanctions by the US and the EU, Moscow promised an unlimited response and warned of closing dialogue opportunities. This was Russia’s strongest ever response to the US.

Adding fuel to the fire

The relationship between Russia and the West continues to crack following widespread fighting in eastern Ukraine. After the cease fire was signed 5 months ago, pro-Russian rebels launched a massive operation that killed hundreds of civilians in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian Parliament condemned Russia, called for stronger sanctions against Moscow and increased aid for Kiev, and urged the international community to put the self-proclaimed Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk on the list of terrorist states. Amidst the increasing tensions in eastern Ukraine, the West continues to provide weapons and money to Kiev, further fueling the conflict. Poland has promised to provide all types of weapons to Ukraine. The EU has agreed to lend Ukraine 1.8 billion euros and left open the possibility of increasing its aid in the near future. Many European countries including the UK plan to give Ukraine medium-term credit worth more than 2.6 billion euros over the next two years.

Sanctions not a solution to the crisis

Ukraine is now in its worst situation ever. The Minsk accord in effect since late last year is the best hope for peace but it has been undermined by violations on both sides.

Ukraine’s political crisis resulted in more than 5,000 civilian deaths and has forced millions to flee their homes. Ukraine’s economy has fallen into a serious crisis with its currency devalued more than 50%, inflation increased to 25% and GDP reduced 7%. The Ukrainian government and separatist forces in the eastern region cannot resolve the situation with so much external intervention and new sanctions against Russia are unlikely to achieve anything besides escalating the tension in Ukraine.

Anh Huyen