(VOVworld)- Since a cease fire took effect a month ago, tensions between Ukraine’s government and separatists have eased. But violations and new actions by the government are dimming the hope of restoring peace in the region.

Photo: Reuters

The cease fire agreement was signed on September 5 in Minsk and reinforced by another agreement signed on September 19 establishing a non-military zone. Since then, both sides have accused the other of violating the agreement. According to the UN, more than 3,660 people have died in the months-long conflict, 330 after the cease fire agreement took effect.

International community’s efforts to save the peace deal

To salvage a peace deal, US Secretary of State John Kerry phoned his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to discuss the situation in eastern Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Minister said Russia had made all possible efforts to assure the cease fire deal in Ukraine. Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for European Security and Cooperation set up a centre to coordinate efforts to monitor the ceasefire. The organization’s task is to ease tension in the region, ensure implementation of signed agreements, and set up monitoring stations in the border area between Russia and Ukraine. Germany is considering the dispatch of troops to Eastern Ukraine to monitor the cease fire agreement. In addition, the international community is accelerating humanitarian aid for people in Eastern Ukraine.

Political interests behind the peace agreement

Analysts are not very optimistic about the deal despite recent diplomatic efforts. They believe the deal is very fragile because the deal only benefits the Kiev government and the West. As Ukraine’s Parliamentary election draws near, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in a bid to gain more votes had painted a peaceful picture of the country. EU countries are supporting the ineffective cease fire in order not to worsen their relations with Russia, the EU’s supplier of gas, as the winter approaches. Opposition parties in Ukraine have criticised the ineffective deal. Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko said no one in Eastern Ukraine believes in Mr. Poroshenko’s peace plan and that the trilateral negotiation in Minsk is a lie.

Risk of recurrence of major violence in Ukraine

The current troubling situation in Ukraine is obstructing Ukraine’s upcoming Parliamentary election scheduled for October 26. It’s difficult to set up polling stations in opposition-controlled areas in the eastern region. The Kiev government says the election will be held in 11 areas in Donetsk and 4 areas in Luhansk province. Meanwhile, the opposition in Luhansk and Donetsk say they will boycott the election and hold their own election on November 2 to elect local authorities and legislative bodies. Mr. Poroshenko called on Russia and the world not to recognize local elections held by the opposition because they don’t comply with Ukraine’s constitution, have no observers and violate Ukrainian citizens’ election rights.

In an extraordinary meeting on October 7, the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill to change administrative borders within the Luhansk Region. The bill improves social services in some of the region’s districts that are under the Kiev government’s control. The opposition in Luhansk described the change as a territorial adjustment and said all districts in Luhansk were under the Luhansk militia’s control and they would fight to liberate Luhansk from the Ukrainian army.

More dialogues between the Ukrainian government and the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk with the OSCE playing an intermediary role may be the key to resolving the current situation.