(VOVWORLD) - The US and Afghanistan’s Taliban signed an agreement the world is hoping will restore peace to Afghanistan after two decades of war. President Donald Trump called it a historic deal, and the international community is greeting it with high expectations. But analysts say the path to lasting peace in Afghanistan will still have to overcome many challenges.
 US soldiers in Afghanistan (photo: NYT) |
The agreement, signed in Qatar’s capital, Doha, calls for US and NATO troops to leave Afghanistan within 14 months and for the Taliban to abide by its commitments. President Trump said the US wants to end the 18-year war, the longest war in US history.
The UN, the EU, and many world leaders hailed the agreement as an important step toward a lasting political solution in Afghanistan. But analysts point to a number of remaining challenges.
Security concerns and a risk of the Taliban breaking its promise
One of the biggest concerns is a resurgence of the Taliban after the US and the NATO withdraw their troops. Troop levels will be cut from 12,000 to 8,600 over the next 135 days. This may cause a security vacuum that Afghan security forces cannot fill. At that time the international coalition forces in Afghanistan and the Afghan army maybe targeted by Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and IS militias.
Carter Malkasian, a former adviser to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the situation could unravel if US forces withdraw before a political accord between the Taliban and the Afghan government is in place. He said once the US troops leave, the Taliban could judge that the balance of forces has changed and that they now want to renege on the agreement.
A possibility is that the Taliban and the Afghan government cannot reach a political reconciliation. The Afghan government, which was set aside in the US-Taliban agreement, may lose major financial resources from Washington and the international community. Kabul said it was not involved in the agreement and rejected a demand to release some 5,000 jailed Taliban prisoners.
Disarmament challenge and reintegration of Taliban fighters
Another challenge to be taken into consideration is reintegrating thousands of Taliban fighters into society. Some suggest combining Taliban and Afghan armed forces. A recent report by Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko said that will be a complicated and time-consuming process. The US administration will need to increase resources for the reintegration program, otherwise about 60,000 Taliban fighters could return to violence.
The Taliban is a poor organized group with low internal consensus. Nobody can be sure that the agreement signed by its leaders will be honored by all Taliban fighters. Analysts say the US-Taliban peace agreement is just the first step on a long and challenging path to peace in Afghanistan.