(VOVworld) – Egypt is at a critical juncture. The winner of the presidential election will be announced within a day. 3 years after the toppling of President Hosni Mubarack, Egyptian people are looking for social security, better living conditions, and lower rates of poverty and unemployment. But political rift have hampered Egypt’s growth development.
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| Egyptian army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi attends a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Novo-Ogaryovo, outside Moscow, on Feb. 13, 2014. (MAXIM SHEMETOV/AFP/Getty Images) |
The Presidential election on May 26 and 27 saw 54 million voters cast ballots. The official vote count is scheduled to be announced on June 5. Observers predict that Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces and former Defense Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will win a landslide victory over his only rival Hamdeen Sabahi. Al-Sisi won 94% of the votes in an early round of voting for Egyptians living abroad.
Al-Sisi led the Egyptian military in the coup that overthrew former President Mohamed Morsi last July. Al-Sisi resigned as Commander-in-chief to run for President. He promised to focus on agriculture, housing, education, and poverty reduction.
Analysts say if Mr. Sisi wins, he will have to take on some heavy tasks. The biggest challenge is to recover the macro-economy and improve people’s living conditions. Strong opposition from the Muslim Brotherhood and actions by Muslim extremist militias will obstruct the national reform process.
Two major tasks
In 3 years of instability, Egypt’s armed budget deficit has grown to 14% of GDP and the national debt has increased to over 100% of GDP. Annual economic growth was about 2%. Political instability has reduced foreign currency incomes from tourism and foreign investment. The unemployment and inflation rates have increased while income per capita has remained flat.
Half of the population are living near or under the poverty line of 2 USD per day. The unemployment rate stands at 13.4%. 70% of unemployed people are between 15 and 29 years old and 80% of them have a high educational qualification.
Egypt’s three attempts to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund to borrow money for national economic development were interrupted because of tough reform conditions.
Egypt’s new President will have no choice but to seek an IMF loan and accept its conditions. Rebalancing the macro-economy and imposing austerity measures without triggering riots will be the tough tasks.
Social division
Many people voted for Sisi in the hope that a pro-military President will be capable of steering the country. But the Muslim Brotherhood, an important organization on Egypt’s political scene for many years, strongly opposes him.
The Muslim Brotherhood boycotted the election because they feared they would be suppressed if Sisi was elected. Sisi has said the Muslim Brotherhood will have no political opportunity if he wins. Voters, who support Hamdeen Sabbahi, say Sisi will stifle democratic rights.