(VOVworld) – Ukraine has begun to nominate candidates for the presidential election in May. The election is considered an important step to help Ukraine stabilize the situation and move closer to Europe. However, this will not be an easy task due to economic difficulties and social division.

Caretaker President Alexandre Turchinov said the government’s primary task is to end conflict and restore order. It will not allow internal conflicts and personal revenge. He added that priority will also be given to economic recovery and European integration.

Viable risks of social instability

Following the political upheaval, thousands of Ukrainians joined a march in the port city of Sevastopol fearing that the ex-Soviet state could collapse. They even chanted that the fascists had taken power in Kiev. Fearing that Sevastopol may become a hot spot of the pro-Moscow separatist movement, the US, Germany, France, and Poland have called on Ukraine to maintain territorial integrity.

Analysts say instability will continue as Ukrainian society has long been divided into pro-Moscow and pro-Western factions. Differences between the two sides have not been resolved over the last 20 years.

Therefore, whoever becomes president will not receive the people’s full support.  

The so-called Orange Revolution has not brought about expected prospects but rather political instability, economic woes, and rifts in relations with neighboring countries.

Increased economic difficulties

Kiev is facing bankruptcy. Its public debt in 2013 increased 13% from 73.1 billion USD in 2012, equivalent to 30% of national GDP. It is supposed to pay the IMF 3 billion USD by the end of the second quarter of this year. With a budget deficit of more than 8%, it will be impossible for Ukraine to pay its debts on time without foreign assistance. Russia’s 15 billion USD loan disappeared with protestors’ ouster of President Yanukovych.            

Ukrainian officials announced on Monday that the country needs 35 billion USD in foreign emergency aid and asked Western donors to convene an international conference in 2 weeks time to discuss a financial bailout for Kiev.

Russian Prime Minister Dimitri Medvedev said extension of the Russia-Ukraine gas agreement will need to be negotiated between Ukrainian companies and their government. He added that Russia will not work with any particular individual because this is a matter of bilateral relations. Medvedev’s statement is obviously not in Ukraine’s interest. The Russian Prime Minister had previously said that Russia doubts the legitimacy of the ruling Ukrainian government and that it is a mistake that some nations have recognized the Ukrainian government.

Russian Economic Minister Alexei Ulyukayev warned that Russia will raise the import tariffs on Ukrainian goods if Kiev signs a partnership agreement with the EU. Russia is currently the key consumer of Ukrainian goods.

Ukraine is worried that Russia will increase gas prices from the level of 268.5 USD for 1000 cubic meters that Russia signed with former President Yanukovych. This level is one third of the 400 USD Kiev had to pay in 2009.

Meanwhile, a cooperative agreement with the EU will have to wait until after the May 25 election.