Ukrainian troops on the frontline  near Trokhizbenka, eastern Ukraine on Feb 2, 2022 (photo: NY Times)

After the release of satellite images of Russia's military buildup along its border with Ukraine, the US and the West sent weapons to Kiev. Following rumors that Russia is about to attack Ukraine, the US sent thousands of troops to NATO members bordering Russia and Ukraine.  

Accusations denied

The US media has reported that Russia has amassed most of the military capability it needs for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia has sent 83 battalions to its border with Ukraine and more are coming. Each battalion has up to 1,000 soldiers. Russia has assembled at least 70% of what it needs for a full-scale attack.

The New York Times and Washington Post last Saturday quoted anonymous US officials as saying that a full Russian invasion of Ukraine could lead to 50,000 civilian deaths or injuries. No basis was mentioned for this prediction.

Russia has repeatedly denied the accusation and in return has accused the West of intentionally trying to ignite a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov said Washington is trying to draw global attention to the Russian-Ukrainian tension and provoke escalation.   

Russian Deputy Ambassador to the UN Dmitry Polyanskiy called the US’s assumptions “madness and scaremongering.”

Diplomatic effort to ease tension  

Ukraine was part of the Russian empire for centuries before becoming a republic of the Soviet Union. It declared independence when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991. Since then Ukraine has strengthened its relations with the West. Pro-Russian ex-President Viktor Yanukovych, who rejected an alliance with Europe and supported a closer relation with Moscow, was overthrown in 2014, the same year Russia annexed Crimea following a referendum and supported an insurgence in eastern Ukraine.    

The new Ukrainian government us comprised of pro-Western politicians who want Ukraine to join NATO as soon as possible to protect its interests. But Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that Ukraine joining NATO is a red line and Russia doesn’t want Ukraine to be a NATO member. Russia has asked NATO to halt military drills near its border and to withdraw from Eastern Europe.  Putin has asked the West to participate in negotiations and insists that it is not a threat to any country. He has warned that a military solution of the eastern Ukraine crisis would have severe consequences.  

Several countries have pursued diplomacy to ease tensions. French President Emmanuel Macron met with President Putin at the Kremlin and the two agreed on a number of security guarantees to resolve the crisis. Although details of their discussion have not been disclosed, both sides have insisted their primary goal is to prevent war and build trust between the parties.

Macron later traveled to Kiev for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. US President Joe Biden meanwhile met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House. Biden said diplomacy is the best way to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian issue and the US and Germany are willing to talk with Russia about security guarantees.

Chancellor Scholz said he supports using every diplomatic opportunity to deescalate tension. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has a good relationship with both Russia and Ukraine, said he is ready to mediate the dispute.