Vietnam’s economic growth forecast for 2015

(VOVworld) – Vietnam achieved an economic growth of 5.98% last year, exceeding the 5.8% target set by the National Assembly. This year, the government has targeted a 6.2% growth. Despite global and domestic difficulties, a number of positive factors have been recorded which could help Vietnam reach that goal.

Vietnam’s economic growth forecast for 2015  - ảnh 1
Vietnam’s economic growth from 2004 to 2014 (Unit: %).
(Photo: General Statistics Office of Vietnam 2014)

2014 was a year when Vietnam fulfilled and exceeded many important socio-economic indicators. Inflation and interest rates fell dramatically while exports maintained a relatively high growth. Vietnam earned a new record 150 billion USD from overseas sales. Thanks to the achievements and advantageous factors reported for this year, many economists say exports will again be a key to Vietnam’s economy in 2015.

In addition to signing a multilateral agreement with the World Trade Organization, Vietnam has become a member of 7 other free trade agreements. In 2015, Vietnam will implement new free trade deals with the Republic of Korea and the Customs Alliance of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Vietnam will continue negotiations on the Vietnam-EU free trade agreement, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, and participate in the ASEAN Economic Community.

Doctor Pham Tat Thang, a senior expert with the Vietnam Institute for Trade and Industry Study of the Ministry of Industry & Trade,comments:

Vietnam’s exports are expected to make enormous progress, thanks to signed free trade agreements, especially in the first quarter of this year when the TPP agreement is supposed to be finalized. But achieving that result will depend on Vietnam’s policies to develop a stable environment for the macro-economy, and business, and on efforts by the business community.

Another favorable factor for Vietnam’s economic growth is that the macro-economy continues to be kept stable and inflation is forecast to be 4%.  Foreign direct investment growth is expected to increase the amount of FDI disbursement to more than 17 billion USD.

Doctor Nguyen Ngoc Tuyen, director of the Institute of Finance and Economics, says: “low inflation and a stable macro-economy will create a good investment environment. The more Vietnam integrates internationally, the higher FDI attraction will be this year. We think FDI capital will be the main source of Vietnam’s economic growth. Low inflation will create conditions for the economic restructuring and re-build investors’ trust.

In addition, many revised laws including the Tax Law, the Customs Law, the Law on Investment, and Enterprise Law will take effect in 2015. Economist Le Dang Doanh says: “this year’s growth is likely to reach 5.5 to 6% if everything goes well. But to gain the 6.2% target, the government should step up administrative reforms and simplify procedures for businesses to boost production and trading. We should take specific actions to realize the target because of the many fluctuations in the global market. 2015 is the year for integration, so enterprises should improve their competitiveness to retain their markets.

To create breakthroughs, Vietnam is shifting its growth model, which depends on productivity and high-added-value products to boost its exports.

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