Security has been stepped up in capital Baghdad

Fighters from ISIL now control most of western Iraq. The insurgents have captured Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, and Tikrit, the hometown of late President Saddam Hussein. These cities are just a few hours drive from Baghdad. ISIL’s goal is to create a large Islamic State consisting of Syria and Iraq.

Iraq is on the verge of a civil war which threatens regional security

The jihadists in Iraq consist of Al-Qaeda-associated Islamic groups and some other Sunni Islamic groups who used to be adversaries of ISIL. After taking control of Mosul, ISIL took advantage of social media including hundreds of Twitter accounts to disseminate video clips and statements about its goal of a new Islamic State.

The situation has been complicated by other forces launching operations in Iraq. Kurdish forces have taken control of the northern oil city of Kirkuk.

The fighting has forced 1 million Iraqis to flee their homes. Several countries, including the US and Australia, have withdrawn their embassy staff from the combat zone and warned their citizens to leave Iraq immediately.

The Iraqi government has insufficient military strength to neutralize ISIL despite being equipped with tanks, armored vehicles, and modern weapons provided by the US. The US says it will be a serious problem if ISIL continues to seize more land and big oil fields, and the hundreds of millions of USD in banks in Mosul. A Sunni State stretching from Syria to Iraq will transform the region. Meanwhile, the Kurdish community spanning parts of Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq appears on the verge of demanding its own state.

Military intervention or diplomatic measures

The US has responded to the instability in Iraq. Following President Barack Obama’s statement, Secretary of State John Kerry said on Monday that the US will consider all measures to handle the Iraqi situation. President Obama informed the US Congress that 275 US military personnel are being sent to Iraq to provide security for the US embassy in Baghdad. The USS Mesa Verde carrying 550 marines is standing by in the Persian Gulf. The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush has also moved to the Persian Gulf.

But US military intervention in Iraq would do more harm than good. The Sunnis would say the US is choosing sides in a sectarian conflict.

The UK says it will not intervene militarily but will offer humanitarian aid and anti-terrorism consulting for the Iraqi government if necessary. Saudi Arabia is also opposed to intervention in Iraq. Riyadh says the crisis in Iraq is the consequence of many years of factional struggle. At an emergency meeting on June 15, the Arab League called for reconciliation among warring factions.

Instability in Iraq was predicted

The situation in Iraq is no surprise. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said the war in Iraq derives from a division in the ruling government. US Secretary of State John Kerry admitted that US efforts can succeed only if Iraqi leaders can forge some kind of national unity to deal with the insurgents. The US magazine The National Interest says Iraq’s Sunnis do not support al-Maliki and consider his government a Shi’ite autocracy.

Analysts say the rise of insurgents with connections to Al-Qaeda is rooted in the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, which triggered prolonged sectarian conflict. Although Iraq has begun to recover economically, there are still about 2 million hungry people and a staggering unemployment rate.