US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Doha, Qatar, January 7, 2024. (Photo: Evelyn Hockstein/AP)

Starting on January 6, Blinken will visit Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Egypt. This is his fourth trip to the Middle East since the conflict between Hamas and Israel broke out on October 7.

Preventing conflict from spreading

Blinken’s trips have gradually shifted priorities as the risk of the conflict spreading has overtaken concerns focused narrowly on Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip. In recent days, there have been worrying signals from clashes between the Lebanese Hezbollah force, an ally of Hamas, and the Israeli army on Israel's northern border.

On January 8, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is ready to wage war against Hezbollah to eliminate its security threat to Israel. Analysts say this is not an empty threat. As soon as the Hamas-Israel conflict broke out in Gaza, Israel considered launching a pre-emptive military campaign against Hezbollah to prevent a similar Gaza scenario. Chairman of the Israeli Parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Yuli Edelstein said Israel's goal is to push Hezbollah away from its border.

“This is a goal, I think, that we are trying to reach, at this stage, through diplomatic channels. I won't get into tactical details, but we are definitely talking about miles," said Edelstein.

In the past few weeks, Israel has repeatedly bombed Hezbollah bases in southern Lebanon. In retaliation, Hezbollah has launched rockets into Israel. Tension escalated when Israel killed Saleh al-Arouri, Deputy Leader of Hamas and a close ally of Hezbollah, on January 2 in Beirut.

Blinken says it’s a critical time in the region and the Gaza conflict could easily spread if parties do not act urgently to prevent it.

“This is a conflict that could easily metastasize, causing even more insecurity and even more suffering. So from day one, among other priorities, we have been intensely focused on working to prevent the conflict from spreading, and that is indeed a major focus of what is now my fourth visit to the region since October 7,” said Blinken.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell on January 6 called for urgent actions to keep Lebanon from being dragged into a regional war.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman in Al Ula, January 8, 2024. (Photo: Evelyn Hockstein/AP)

Gaza’s post-conflict status discussed

Blinken will continue to search for solutions to end the Gaza conflict, build a post-conflict framework, and revitalize the Israeli-Palestinian peace process under new mechanisms.

Observers say that three months after Israel launched its military campaign in Gaza, disputes are increasing between Israel and the US, its closest ally. Although it maintains its political and military support for Israel, the US is dissatisfied with Israel on many issues, such as its poor cooperation with the United Nations and the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Society in providing relief to Palestinian civilians in Gaza.

Secretary of State Blinken said, "Too many Palestinian civilians are suffering from insufficient access to food, to water, to medicine, to other essential supplies – children most of all.  We continue to raise with Israel the need to do everything possible to facilitate the provision of humanitarian aid to Gaza.”

The US is also at odds with the Israeli government on managing post-conflict Gaza. The US and many other countries want a unified Palestinian state to manage both Gaza and the West Bank following the conflict. But many Israeli government officials have publicly said they don’t want to hand over the Gaza Strip to the Palestinians.

Blinken’s mission is to convince Israeli leaders to decide this issue soon. In a warning to the Israeli government, Blinken said he has talked with the leaders of many Arab countries and received commitments from them to normalize relations with Israel on the condition that the Gaza conflict ends soon and that a lasting Israeli-Palestinian peace is established by creating co-existing states of Palestine and Israel.