Gas pipelines at a transit station in Werne, Germany (Photo: AFP/VNA)

IEA said in a statement on Thursday that Europe will get through the winter first because Russia has maintained almost normal amounts of gas committed under contracts for the first 6 months of this year despite the conflict. Since the beginning of 2022, Russia has provided Europe a total of 60 billion cubic meters of gas.

Second, Europe has bought a large amount of liquefied natural gas (NLG) given  China’s lower LNG imports due to Zero Covid policy.

Last, this year's winter is predicted not too harsh, decreasing people's heating demand by about 9%.

But favorable factors may be gone by the next winter because there will be no more gas supplies from Russia. The global LNG supply is expected to increase by only 20 billion cubic meters in 2023 and it will not be enough if China’s energy demand recovers as in 2021.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Europe could face a gap of as much as 30 billion cubic metres of natural gas during the 2023 winter and  such a gap could see storages only 65% instead of a targeted 95% level this year. Birol also warned that energy prices will likely continue to rise.

The IEA chief called on European countries to accelerate energy efficiency plans, continue to reduce demand, and promote renewable energy sources.