The conflict began on February 24, 2022, when Russia launched a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, the most impactful geopolitical event in Europe in decades, which shook international relations.

Ukrainian soldiers take shelter in a trench. (Photo: AFP/VNA)

A turning point for peace

Over the past 3 years the conflict has caused severe human and economic losses for both sides, particularly Ukraine. Some financial organizations estimated last year that Ukraine, whose industrial and energy sectors have been severely damaged, might need 500 billion USD for post-conflict reconstruction. Russia, too, is grappling with economic strain, due to combat costs and Western sanctions. The conflict has heightened fears of further escalation and a global security disaster.

Recent developments, however, suggest a potential breakthrough. On February 12, US President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin to start negotiations to end the conflict. On February 18, US and Russian  officials met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, paving the way for a possible direct dialogue between Trump and Putin in the coming weeks.

Trump has made resolving the Ukraine conflict a priority, and is pressing both sides to negotiate.

To push for an agreement, the US is engaging directly with Russia while pressuring Ukraine to make economic and security concessions. At the same time, Washington is urging Europe to take on greater security responsibilities, increase defense spending, and build a long-term security plan for Ukraine. Observers say Trump aims to secure a peace deal before Easter (April 20).

A challenge for Europe

Though all parties want peace to be restored in Ukraine, the way to do it is still the big question. The exclusion of Ukraine and Europe from the US-Russia talks, and US pressure on Ukraine to give the US a 500-billion-USD mineral deal, has unsettled European allies, challenging their unity and ability to help Ukraine.

Last week, EU leaders held two meetings in Paris, joined by the UK, which left the EU in 2016, and Canada, which is a member of NATO, to discuss ways to respond to the current development. But both meetings failed to produce either unified support for the US approach or a unified response to that approach.

A key test will come this week when French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer travel to Washington to persuade President Trump to support the EU’s security strategy and give security guarantees for a European-led peacekeeping mission in Ukraine—if a ceasefire is reached.

Philip Golub, Professor of International Relations at the American University in Paris, says convincing Trump to back Europe’s plan will be an uphill battle.

Armida Van Rij, Director of the European Program at the UK’s Chatham House, says recent developments show that the US is withdrawing from its security commitments to Europe and the resolution of the Ukraine conflict will be a critical test for Europe—determining whether the bloc can take responsibility for its own security and whether it will be sidelined in the evolving geopolitical landscape.