The 61st Munich Security Conference focuses on the Ukraine conflict. (Photo: securityconference.org.)

Vice President J.D Vance is leading a US delegation that includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other senior officials to the 61st Munich Security Conference from Friday to Sunday.

A turning point in the Ukraineconflict

Two days before the MSC, US President Donald Trump said he had his first phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to start negotiations on ending the conflict in Ukraine. Trump did not consult with his European allies before calling the Russian President, and only informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy afterwards.

Observers say Trump’s move could be a turning point in the three-year conflict but it threatens to sideline the European allies – and even Ukraine – during what could turn out to be US-Russia negotiations.

That concern deepened after US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said at the NATO Defense Ministers meeting on Wednesday that Ukraine’s NATO membership is unfeasible and its goal of regaining the territory seized by Russia is unrealistic.

Stephen Wertheim, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called the Secretary of Defense's statement a 'concession to reality,' noting that it places European countries in a difficult position. In a statement on Thursday, a group that included most European nations, including the UK, said 'there will be no lasting peaceful solution for Ukraine without European participation in the negotiations.'

“Whether we decide to fall under the illusion that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin are going to find the solution for all of us and that would be a deadly trap. Or we will, as Europe, embrace our own economic, financial and military capacity and we’ll be the one to decide what will happen in Europe and Ukraine with the United States,” said Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene.

At the MSC, Vice President Vance is expected to clearly outline the US position on Ukraine. Volodymyr Ohryzko, former Foreign Minister of Ukraine and Director of the Center for Russian Studies, said the European countries and Ukraine should leverage high-level contacts at the MSC to persuade the US government to align with European perspectives.

“The US has yet to make a definitive statement, based on what we have observed. At this stage, Ukraine's primary objective in its external affairs is to establish a clear stance – or more specifically, to persuade Trump’s team to adopt that stance,” said Ohryzko.

Pressure on Europe

Besides discussions to seek an end to the conflict, the MSC will undoubtedly discuss another topic – NATO’s defense budget and NATO members’ financial responsibilities.

At his first meeting with NATO counterparts on Wednesday and Thursday in Brussels, Defense Secretary Hegseth dampened hopes that the new US administration will honor old transatlantic commitments. He said 'Europe is no longer America's top security priority' and Europe must take responsibility for ensuring its own security. Hegseth insisted that NATO members should increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, a demand previously made by President Trump.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said 5% of GDP for defense is unrealistic considering the current economic condition of many NATO members.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos last month, Rutte admitted that NATO is in a financial crisis.

“We are really in crisis mode here. So first, money. Much more to be spent faster. Ones not on 2% have to get to the 2% in the next couple of months, we cannot wait any longer. And then we have, collectively, to move up. And we will decide on the exact number later this year, but it will be considerably more than at two,” Rutte said.

MSC Chairman Christoph Heusgen said that, while it’s unlikely President Trump will withdraw all US troops stationed in Europe in the near future, American taxpayers will certainly not be pleased if other NATO countries fail to contribute more than 3% of their GDP to defense. In the long term, the only viable path for Europe is to strengthen its own security capabilities and reduce its reliance on the US.

President Trump’s plan to take over Gaza could spark other disagreements between Europe and the US, as most European nations strongly oppose that idea. Trump’s desire to purchase Greenland from Denmark or annex Canada are other contentious issues expected to arise at the Munich conference.