(VOVWORLD) - The Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2025 to 7%, up from the previous projection of 6%, given strong momentum from last year and the potential effect of trade conflicts after US President Trump takes office.
According to UOB, Vietnam ended 2024 on a strong note, with real GDP growth surging to 7.55% in the fourth quarter. This figure was well above the median consensus view of 6.7% and the bank's forecast of 5.2%.
The manufacturing and servicesectors continued to be the main drivers of growth, while external trade maintained its strong pace through 2024. The upswing in semiconductor sales since mid-2023 suggests that momentum is likely to continue in the next quarter or two.
"We expect positive momentum from domestic drivers such as production, consumer spending, and visitor arrivals to contribute to activities, especially in the first half," said a UOB release on Thursday.
Vietnam's National Assembly has set a growth target of 6.5-7% for 2025, and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh recently called for an 8% expansion with faster public disbursement to improve infrastructure and attract more investment.
"Based on the disciplined approach to its fiscal stance and the way public expenditure has been disbursed so far, the 8% goal seems overly ambitious but there is still a chance of it being reached," the bank said.